What February's Containerboard Price Drop Actually Means for Your Packaging Budget

Every packaging decision you make in Q1 2026 now has an asterisk next to it. Fastmarkets RISI released its February containerboard pricing data on February 22, and the numbers moved in a direction almost nobody in the industry expected: down $20 per ton across kraft liner, corrugating medium, and recycled linerboard.

If you're managing corrugated purchasing for your company right now, you probably have questions. I certainly did when the data landed in my inbox Monday morning. After four years of handling materials ordering for a 180-person food and beverage operation — processing roughly 70 POs a year across six corrugated and folding carton suppliers — I've learned that price index movements like this one ripple outward in ways that aren't always obvious from the headline number.

So here's what I've been able to piece together this week, organized around the questions I've been fielding from our ops team and finance.

How big is this price drop, and why is everyone calling it surprising?

The February decrease is $20 per ton. That might not sound dramatic on its own, but the context is what rattled people. This is the first decline the Fastmarkets RISI index has registered since November 2023 — more than two years of relative stability or upward pressure.

Michael Roxland, senior paper and packaging analyst at Truist Securities, called the timing "surprising" in a February 22 investor note. BofA Securities analyst George Staphos wrote that it came "somewhat surprisingly," and Jefferies said their industry contacts were "shocked with the timing."

Part of the shock stems from what had been a fairly optimistic outlook heading into 2026. Analysts had noted improved supply-demand dynamics following a historic year of capacity pullbacks — North American containerboard production capacity fell nearly 10% in 2025 through a series of mill closures and machine shutdowns. BofA had maintained forecasts for a Q1 2026 price hike as recently as the week before Fastmarkets RISI published the February data.

What caused the decline?

Nobody's pointing to a single cause. The factors analysts have cited include:

• Sluggish demand, partly driven by the widespread January winter storm that tamped down corrugated consumption across much of the country.
• Discounting by some integrated producers — the large, vertically integrated companies that both make containerboard and convert it into boxes.
• Increased European imports of containerboard into the North American market.

Roxland specifically cited what he described as a "sharp respondent downturn" from January's survey results. Several major producers — Graphic Packaging International, International Paper, Packaging Corporation of America, and SmurfitWestrock — all mentioned weather impacts during recent earnings calls. GPI estimated $20 million to $30 million in negative Q1 impacts from the storm alone. International Paper estimated a $20 million to $25 million hit.

But here's the thing that makes it confusing from where I sit: some of those same producers also reported slight demand improvements in January. So the picture is genuinely mixed.

What does this mean for the $70/ton price increases announced for March 1?

This is the question that's been keeping me up. Packaging Corporation of America kicked off the hike announcements back in January, with International Paper following days later. Cascades made its announcement in early February. SmurfitWestrock's came on February 10. All targeting a $70 per ton increase effective March 1.

The consensus among analysts is that the full $70 is now very unlikely to stick — at least not on that timeline. Roxland said there's "increased risk" to the March increase. Jefferies was slightly more optimistic, noting they "still see a path for partial realization this spring," but added that implementation "could take longer."

BofA analysts stated they "continue to expect a $40/ton increase in March" — roughly 57% of what was announced. That tracks with what happened in a similar situation in early 2024. Back then, Fastmarkets RISI showed a $20/ton decrease in November 2023, and the industry ultimately pushed through a partial increase of $40 per ton in February 2024, rather than the full $70 they'd wanted.

If you're building 2026 budgets right now — and I was literally in the middle of updating our quarterly forecast when this dropped — a $40/ton increase is probably the safer planning number. Though honestly, even that feels uncertain.

How much of the containerboard market does this index actually cover?

This is something I didn't fully appreciate until I dug into it this week. Fastmarkets RISI's data only covers the open market, which both Truist and Jefferies estimate at less than 10% of total containerboard volume. The vast majority of containerboard moves through vertically integrated systems — the big producers making board and converting it into boxes within their own operations.

Jefferies analysts made an interesting observation: "It's always been odd the industry relied on RISI, especially given the high vertical integration of the large players." They also noted that a $20/ton cut on the index "isn't typically large enough to trigger box prices lower" because such a small percentage of contracts are actually tied to it.

That said, the index has psychological weight. It moves stock prices — packaging company shares fell in pre-market trading the Monday after the data was released, as Investing.com reported. And it shapes sentiment, which in turn shapes negotiations. When I'm sitting across from a sales rep who knows I've seen the RISI number, it changes the conversation.

Aren't some producers trying to move away from this index anyway?

Yes, and that's been building for a while. The index frustrated producers throughout 2024 when it only partially recognized multiple price increase attempts. GPI was the first to formally break away, announcing in late 2024 that it would eliminate third-party indexes starting in Q1 2025. The company spent much of last year transitioning customers onto its own proprietary pricing index, which executives have described as "very transparent."

PCA executives expressed similar frustration during a January 2025 earnings call and signaled their intention to move away from the index as well.

For someone in my position, this trend is worth watching. If more producers shift to proprietary indexes, the negotiation dynamics around corrugated pricing could change meaningfully — and not necessarily in ways that favor buyers. At least with a third-party index, there's a shared reference point. Proprietary indexes put more information asymmetry in the producer's hands.

What about tariffs — are those a factor here?

They're a wild card. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 21 that most of President Trump's tariffs based on emergency powers were unconstitutional. The president subsequently announced plans to implement 15% global tariffs. Stifel analysts Lars Kjellberg and Massimiliano Pilato flagged this specifically, noting that "continued market uncertainty, including a new potential wave of tariffs, may push this into Q2."

From a purchasing standpoint, the tariff situation adds another layer of unpredictability to an already murky Q1. If tariffs on European containerboard imports actually take effect, that could reduce the import pressure that contributed to the February price dip — potentially strengthening the case for price hikes later this spring. But I wouldn't bet on any specific scenario right now.

What about boxboard and other grades?

One small piece of clarity: boxboard pricing for all grades — coated and uncoated recycled board, coated unbleached kraft, and solid bleached sulfate — remained unchanged from January. So if your packaging mix leans more toward folding cartons than corrugated, this particular index movement may not hit your budget directly. That's at least one line item in my spreadsheet that isn't flashing red this week.

So what should I actually do with this information?

Here's my honest take, based on watching these cycles for four years and talking to our suppliers this week:

• Plan for a partial increase. Budget for something in the $30 to $40/ton range for spring, not the full $70.
• Don't lock in long-term contracts just yet. The market is genuinely uncertain. If your current agreements have flexibility, use it.
• Watch the tariff situation closely. Whatever happens with the 15% global tariff proposal could shift the calculus significantly.
• Ask your suppliers about their index exposure. If they're still tied to Fastmarkets RISI, you may have some leverage in the near term. If they've moved to a proprietary index, understand how it works before your next negotiation.

I should note — this is based on a mid-size CPG operation's perspective. If you're running a much larger corrugated program with direct mill contracts, or a much smaller one buying through distributors, your experience will differ. But the underlying market dynamics affect everyone in the corrugated supply chain, and this February dip has introduced enough uncertainty to warrant a careful look at your assumptions for the rest of the year.